个股层面,最初Wysocki(1998)的研究发现,夜间股票相关帖子发布数量与成交量相关。基于雅虎金融(Finance!Yahoo)和愤怒的公牛(Raging Bull)的发帖数据,Antweiler 和 Frank(2004)研究表明,帖子信息能够帮助预测股票波动性和股票收益率,但收益率经济意义不显著。此外,涨/跌情绪分歧都越大,股票交易量越大。Sprenger等(2014b)研究表明Tweet中包含的情绪与股票收益率显著相关,同时每日微博数量越多,股票成交量越大,微博涨跌情绪分歧度与股票波动性也显著相关。

As to individual stocks, the quantity of stock-related messages posted at night correlates with the trading volume, as was indicated at first by the findings of some study conducted by Wysocki (1998). Based on certain data on postings sourced from Yahoo Finance and Raging Bull and as shown in the research carried out by Antweiler and Frank (2004), the information contained in posts can help with the predication of both stock volatility and stock return, but stock return is not of conspicuous significance in economic terms. In addition, the larger the measure of variance in market sentiment on upward/downward movement is, the greater the stock trading volume will turn out to be. According to the study conducted by Sprenger et al. (2014b), the sentiment contained in Tweet correlates markedly with the stock return. Meanwhile, the heavier the daily load of micro-blogging entries is, the greater the stock trading volume comes out to be, whilst the measure of variance in market sentiment of micro-bloggers on upward/downward movement also correlates markedly with the stock volatility.


As shown by the empirical research by Zhang Yihao et al. (2010), the intensity of investors’ online searching efforts wields an influence on the short-term return, short-term trading volume and cumulative return of stocks, whilst investors’ online searching, as compared with conventional variables such as investor sentiment and investor attention, has been more interpretative and predicative of the stock market. According to Shen Yifeng et al. (2013), those firms meeting with netizens’ opposition against their attempt at seasoned equity offering have recorded eye-catchingly negative excess returns of their stocks after they made a private placement announcement.


At present, the research into Internet-based big data is largely focused upon its predicative validity on the stock market performance, whilst few scholars would discuss the influence exercised by Internet-based big data on corporate behavior. In the era of big data, we can employ Internet-based big data to predict not only the stock market performance but also the performance level of corporate players (Da et al., 2011b). According to the research by Shen Yifeng et al. (2013), it is also possible to predict the probability of a decline in future performance. As has been discovered by Bravo et al. (2015), the overall index of sentiment enables a prediction of the quarterly level of corporate performance.

近年来,我国科研人员在国际学术期刊上发 表的论文数量大幅增长。然而,国外期刊撤稿事件频发,也将矛头直指国内第三方机构提供种种论文服务的灰色产业链。第三方机构提供的学术论文润色、代投、代写等服务涉及怎样的灰色产业链?如何规范管理?如何让学术界远离 “ 脏 ” 论文的侵蚀?本报就此推出系列调查报道。 2015 年 12 月 18 日,自然出版集团宣布撤下 3 篇来自中国的医学论文。这也成为继现代生物出版集团、施普林格、爱思唯尔世界三家大型出版集团之后的第四起撤稿事件,而被撤论文的主角大都是中国作者。 

Recent years saw a sharp increase in the number of papers published by Chinese scientific researchers on international academic periodicals. However, many a foreign periodical has retracted papers submitted by Chinese authors and leveled charges of dishonesty at third party organs in China which busy themselves providing an assortment of services relating to research papers in a booming grey market. How has this grey market been defined by these third party organs’ provision of services relating to research papers, such as embellishment, vicarious submission and ghostwriting? How to regulate such a market? How to keep the academia from erosion by “dishonest” papers? We are in a position to launch a series of investigation reports to uncover the truth. On 18 December 2015, the Nature Publishing Group announced its retraction of 3 medical papers submitted from China. This is the 4th happening of the “retraction of papers” type following previous retractions done by three giant publishers in the world - BioMed Central, Springer and Elsevier, which reported that most of the lead authors of these retracted papers hailed from China.


That being so, why did the Chinese authorities fly into such a rage at a mere remark made by Soros? The answer is a somewhat guilty conscience. Taking in stride the smearing from some detractors for years, the Chinese authorities used to possess a bolstered confidence thanks to the brilliant performance of her national economy. However, data on China’s economy in recent years have appeared to be increasingly unpalatable, signifying a looming slow-down. At such a critically delicate moment when her national economy seems to be skating on thin ice now, the very last thing the Chinese authorities wish to see is anyone pouring oil on the flames. Thus, they have spared no effort to issue warnings and heap reproaches. In point of fact, the success of Alibaba in getting listed in the United States merely stood for a fleeting, unendurable recovery of China’s economy in the global arena, since its shares fell below the price at which they floated shortly after the floatation.