Financial

个股层面,最初Wysocki(1998)的研究发现,夜间股票相关帖子发布数量与成交量相关。基于雅虎金融(Finance!Yahoo)和愤怒的公牛(Raging Bull)的发帖数据,Antweiler 和 Frank(2004)研究表明,帖子信息能够帮助预测股票波动性和股票收益率,但收益率经济意义不显著。此外,涨/跌情绪分歧都越大,股票交易量越大。Sprenger等(2014b)研究表明Tweet中包含的情绪与股票收益率显著相关,同时每日微博数量越多,股票成交量越大,微博涨跌情绪分歧度与股票波动性也显著相关。

As to individual stocks, the quantity of stock-related messages posted at night correlates with the trading volume, as was indicated at first by the findings of some study conducted by Wysocki (1998). Based on certain data on postings sourced from Yahoo Finance and Raging Bull and as shown in the research carried out by Antweiler and Frank (2004), the information contained in posts can help with the predication of both stock volatility and stock return, but stock return is not of conspicuous significance in economic terms. In addition, the larger the measure of variance in market sentiment on upward/downward movement is, the greater the stock trading volume will turn out to be. According to the study conducted by Sprenger et al. (2014b), the sentiment contained in Tweet correlates markedly with the stock return. Meanwhile, the heavier the daily load of micro-blogging entries is, the greater the stock trading volume comes out to be, whilst the measure of variance in market sentiment of micro-bloggers on upward/downward movement also correlates markedly with the stock volatility.

张宜浩等(2010)的实证研究发现投资者网络搜索强度对股票短期收益率、短期交易量及累积收益率均有影响,并且相较于传统的投资者情绪和投资者关注变量,投资者网络搜索对股票市场的解释力及预测效力更强。沈艺峰等(2013)遭到网络舆论反对的增发公司,其定向增发公告后的股票超额收益率显著为负。

As shown by the empirical research by Zhang Yihao et al. (2010), the intensity of investors’ online searching efforts wields an influence on the short-term return, short-term trading volume and cumulative return of stocks, whilst investors’ online searching, as compared with conventional variables such as investor sentiment and investor attention, has been more interpretative and predicative of the stock market. According to Shen Yifeng et al. (2013), those firms meeting with netizens’ opposition against their attempt at seasoned equity offering have recorded eye-catchingly negative excess returns of their stocks after they made a private placement announcement.

现阶段关于互联网大数据的研究主要集中在其对股票市场表现的预测效果上,较少有学者就互联网大数据对公司行为的影响进行讨论。大数据时代下,我们不仅可以用互联网大数据预测股票市场表现,同时也可预测公司自身的业绩水平(Da等,2011b)。沈艺峰等(2013)等的研究表明,并能够预测公司未来的业绩下降概率。Bravo等(2015)则发现,总体情绪指标能够预测公司季度盈利水平。

At present, the research into Internet-based big data is largely focused upon its predicative validity on the stock market performance, whilst few scholars would discuss the influence exercised by Internet-based big data on corporate behavior. In the era of big data, we can employ Internet-based big data to predict not only the stock market performance but also the performance level of corporate players (Da et al., 2011b). According to the research by Shen Yifeng et al. (2013), it is also possible to predict the probability of a decline in future performance. As has been discovered by Bravo et al. (2015), the overall index of sentiment enables a prediction of the quarterly level of corporate performance.

近年来,我国科研人员在国际学术期刊上发 表的论文数量大幅增长。然而,国外期刊撤稿事件频发,也将矛头直指国内第三方机构提供种种论文服务的灰色产业链。第三方机构提供的学术论文润色、代投、代写等服务涉及怎样的灰色产业链?如何规范管理?如何让学术界远离 “ 脏 ” 论文的侵蚀?本报就此推出系列调查报道。 2015 年 12 月 18 日,自然出版集团宣布撤下 3 篇来自中国的医学论文。这也成为继现代生物出版集团、施普林格、爱思唯尔世界三家大型出版集团之后的第四起撤稿事件,而被撤论文的主角大都是中国作者。 

Recent years saw a sharp increase in the number of papers published by Chinese scientific researchers on international academic periodicals. However, many a foreign periodical has retracted papers submitted by Chinese authors and leveled charges of dishonesty at third party organs in China which busy themselves providing an assortment of services relating to research papers in a booming grey market. How has this grey market been defined by these third party organs’ provision of services relating to research papers, such as embellishment, vicarious submission and ghostwriting? How to regulate such a market? How to keep the academia from erosion by “dishonest” papers? We are in a position to launch a series of investigation reports to uncover the truth. On 18 December 2015, the Nature Publishing Group announced its retraction of 3 medical papers submitted from China. This is the 4th happening of the “retraction of papers” type following previous retractions done by three giant publishers in the world - BioMed Central, Springer and Elsevier, which reported that most of the lead authors of these retracted papers hailed from China.

既然如此,那为什么索罗斯的一句话,就让中国当局如此大动肝火呢?因为心虚。多年来的唱衰不值一提,只因经济表现好,信心足。可是,近几年中国经济数据开始越来越难看,已经走上了减缓衰退的道路。在心惊胆寒、如履薄冰之际,最怕有人火上浇油,所以要不惜余力地予以警告和痛斥。实际上,阿里巴巴在美国成功上市也只代表中国经济在国际舞台的回光返照,没坚持多久就跌破了发行价。

That being so, why did the Chinese authorities fly into such a rage at a mere remark made by Soros? The answer is a somewhat guilty conscience. Taking in stride the smearing from some detractors for years, the Chinese authorities used to possess a bolstered confidence thanks to the brilliant performance of her national economy. However, data on China’s economy in recent years have appeared to be increasingly unpalatable, signifying a looming slow-down. At such a critically delicate moment when her national economy seems to be skating on thin ice now, the very last thing the Chinese authorities wish to see is anyone pouring oil on the flames. Thus, they have spared no effort to issue warnings and heap reproaches. In point of fact, the success of Alibaba in getting listed in the United States merely stood for a fleeting, unendurable recovery of China’s economy in the global arena, since its shares fell below the price at which they floated shortly after the floatation.